One of the hardest decisions is when to book your airline tickets. Someone we know is on the computer at 12:-01AM 11 months in advance, expecting to get the best deal.
Do you get the best deal then? Not likely, fares at the opening are usually midrange. The really good sale fares are held until much later. These lead-in fares are the ones you see in the advertisements.
If you are a smart consumer who reads the airline policies, you might be able to book and, if there is a lower fare, get the residual returned to you in the form of a voucher. Airlines may charge their change fees or an administrative fee for doing this though, and you don’t get your money back. But if you travel regularly it is an option. Check out the airline website for what they charge for fare downgrades.
So, when is the best time to buy? There are several best times. Research shows that most leisure travellers book airline tickets between 3-4 months and 3-4 weeks in advance. The habit of booking 3-4 weeks in advance is more recent, and partially a result of low-cost carriers and internet booking.
3-4 months, 5 at the outside, is because of airlines like Southwest and Jetblue, who unlike legacy carriers, book a much shorter advance period than legacy carriers. By not planning so far in advance, the airline can reduce inconveniences caused by fleet deployment and route planning decisions. Legacy carriers are more likely to implement sweeping schedule changes because of this.
There are services that will monitor prices on a route for you, and will be reviewed in a future post. But the best thing to do is to start looking at the interval mentioned, and check periodically. If it looks like a good price, you might want to hedge your bets and buy it. Better to pay a few dollars more than risk a sudden jump and pay a whole lot more.
Fares are subject to availability and rapid shift based on human variables. Humans have a million different reasons for booking when they do and to where. It is impossible to predict their purchasing habits with any degree of certainty. A sale will appear when the airline has a reason to give one. Either building traffic on a new route, an overall sale straddling several routes to boost numbers in a city, or a sale on a specific route or merely opening of more seats at a lower fare due to disappointing revenue thus far.
So, don’t sweat the small stuff. Relax and don’t obsess…and if you need some advice, email flier@infrequentflier.com
